What if the next great race in cruising isn’t to build ships—but to right-size ambition?
Every month, another gleaming hull slides into the water—larger, smarter, more efficient. The global orderbook now shows 73 ocean ships on order through 2036, set to add more than 180,000 berths at a total value trending toward US $65 billion.
The headline invites euphoria. The question demands discipline: Is the industry sailing toward saturation—or toward its next frontier of optimization?
The Facts on the Table
- Orderbook: 73 new ocean ships, >180,000 berths, nearly US $65B in contracted investment through ~2036.
- Passenger volume: 34.6 million ocean-going guests in 2024, with 37.7 million projected for 2025.
- Average cruise length: ~7.1 days globally (i.e., roughly “7-night” products).
What 180,000 New Berths Could Mean
A simple, illustrative throughput math:
- Assume 50 operating weeks/year (allowing for drydocks and repositioning).
- 180,000 berths × 50 weeks ≈ 9.0 million annual passenger capacity if fully and efficiently utilized on 7-night equivalents.
This is illustrative capacity, not a forecast—because not all berths sail at identical load factors, itineraries vary in length, and some new capacity replaces old.
Retirement and Replacement: The Missing Variable
Net capacity depends on how much older tonnage exits.
- Pandemic-era and post-pandemic retirements and scrapings accelerated, and decommissioning continues.
Meanwhile, CIN’s 2025 outlook indicates passenger capacity growth of ~6.5% in 2025 and ~6% in 2026, with a ~30% capacity increase by 2033 (headline figure excluding future retirements)—which implies net growth remains material even after normal removals.
Takeaway: The orderbook is not 100% additive. But even after retirements, net capacity climbs meaningfully through the early-to-mid 2030s.
Capacity Is Not a Hull Count—It’s a Commercial System
I’ve said it for years: capacity must be converted into salable itineraries and marketed/distributed as products and experiences. The ship is an asset; the itinerary is the inventory; the experience is the yield engine.
The winners won’t be the brands with the most steel in the water, but those with the highest “experience yield per berth”—a composite of occupancy, pricing power, onboard revenue mix, and lifetime value (including subscriptions and loyalty monetization).
Five Structural Tensions to Watch
- Demand Elasticity vs. Price Discipline CLIA’s growth trajectory—34.6M (2024) → 37.7M (2025)—signals strong demand. But price leadership is fragile in a world of real-time transparency and AI-assisted shopping. Holding rate while filling more berths is an execution art, not a given.
- Port and Destination Constraints Physical bottlenecks—from Sydney’s terminal constraints to European city restrictions—impose frictions that steel alone can’t solve. Expect itinerary redesign, seasonal redeployment, and private-destination reliance to keep rising.
- Generational Preference Shift Growth is increasingly driven by younger cruisers—with different expectations on sustainability, authenticity, and digital experience. Filling capacity with the next generation requires identity alignment, not just discounting.
- Green Constraints as Strategy The path beyond LNG—methanol, shore power integration, efficiency tech—is not just compliance; it’s market positioning. Expect access advantages (and PR upside) for greener fleets in sensitive regions.
- AI Disintermediation of the Funnel As consumers adopt personal AI trip agents, the booking funnel compresses into algorithmic decisions. Capacity will flow toward brands that are machine-readable (structured content, real ESG data, clear value) and machine-compelling (reputation, reliability, guest outcomes). (More in the companion article: Are Cruise Lines Ready for the AI Passenger?)
Are We Nearing “Peak Capacity”? The Rational Answer
No—if we define capacity as optimized, high-yield, and demand-matched. Yes—if we define capacity as undifferentiated tonnage chasing the same ports, seasons, and segments.
The orderbook math (73 ships, >180k berths) suggests a sizable potential throughput (≈9M pax/year equivalent). Against a 34.6–37.7M demand base today, this is material. But the system self-corrects through:
- Retirements and fleet curation (older, less efficient ships exit).
- Itinerary innovation (off-peak seasons, emerging regions, private/island experiences).
- Yield management (price, onboard mix, segmentation, loyalty/subscription economics).
- Operational constraints (ports, regulations, environmental access rules).
“Peak capacity” is therefore not a calendar year. It’s a management choice.
What Great Operators Will Do Next (Playbook)
1) Shift KPIs from “built” to “optimized.” Make Experience Yield per Berth (EY/B) your north star: Occupancy × ADR (or net ticket) × onboard revenue per guest × repeat propensity.
2) Treat itinerary as a living portfolio. Model port access risk, seasonality, protest/regulatory overhang, and shore-power availability the way airlines model slots and gate access. Then redeploy boldly.
3) Build a Sustainability P&L. Quantify the revenue upside of green access (ports, permits, community goodwill) against capex/opex. Sustainability becomes commercial access insurance.
4) Prepare for the AI-mediated market. Publish machine-readable inventory, transparent policies, verified ESG data, and outcome metrics (guest satisfaction, reliability). Win the algorithm’s trust as much as the traveler’s.
5) Right-size brands within the house of brands. Not every flag needs a mega-ship. Curate segment-fit capacity (expedition, premium, ultra-luxury) to protect rate integrity and storytelling power.
6) Harness Relationship Capital. In a capacity supercycle, relationship capital—with ports, suppliers, communities, and guests—becomes a scarcity arbitrage. It’s as valuable as hard currency; it smooths access, accelerates solutions, and compounds loyalty.
Hard Ships Lens: Calm in Abundance
From my book Hard Ships: “Keep moving while conserving energy.” Capacity expansion is motion; optimization is conservation. Another protocol: “Get to the truth.” The truth is not that we have “too many ships.” The truth is that we will have too little differentiation where access is constrained and the guest is changing.
Bottom line: In an age of abundance, restraint is strategy. The boldest move now is not simply to add steel; it’s to elevate yield, curate access, and earn loyalty—human and algorithmic.