As a business strategist and consultant, I guide organizations in crafting and executing strategies that are both purposeful and pragmatic. My approach, rooted in the Business Resilience Framework, helps companies navigate present challenges while building a foundation for long-term success. By focusing on reality-based actions, inclusive decision-making, and adaptability, I ensure that businesses are not just reactive but are leading the way in their industries.
The Pulse of an Industry in Motion
The cruise industry continues its remarkable climb back to growth and expansion. Passenger volumes set new records in 2024 at 34.6 million, with 2025 projected to approach 37.7 million. Notably, first-time cruisers and younger demographics are fueling this demand—underscoring that the market’s future will look quite different than its past.
At the same time, the orderbook remains staggering—nearly 70 ships valued at $57 billion. This confirms what I often call “capacity as destiny”: ships ordered years ago are now coming online into a market that demands agility and foresight to fill and sustain them.
Themes Shaping the Present and Future
1. Demand and Demographics
The near corner: robust demand today, carried by first-time cruisers and younger audiences entering the market. The further corner: how deeply will Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z reshape expectations around sustainability, personalization, and technology?
2. Fleet Growth
The near corner: steady arrival of newbuilds and fleet expansions. The further corner: will today’s ships, with their LNG or dual-fuel capabilities, still meet environmental regulations 10 years from now—or will new propulsion and port infrastructure leapfrog them?
3. Sustainability as Core Strategy
The near corner: LNG, methanol, ammonia, shore power, battery systems—each representing real investment today. The further corner: the industry’s ability to align with net-zero goals, anticipate global regulations, and leverage disruptive breakthroughs in fuels and efficiency.
4. Itineraries and Destinations
The near corner: new homeports in Galveston, Santos, and Norfolk; Caribbean and Mediterranean staples; Alaska, Asia, and Brazil rising. The further corner: how will climate change, geopolitical shifts, and local community pressures alter tomorrow’s maps of opportunity?
5. Financial and Structural Moves
The near corner: NCLH refinancing, Carnival enhancing loyalty, suppliers like DOF Robotics going public. The further corner: how will capital structure, M&A, and technology partnerships redefine the cruise ecosystem?
A Look Around the Corner
In Hard Ships, I write about the discipline of looking “around the near corner” for actionable opportunities, and “around the further corner” for the forces that will shape the longer horizon. The cruise industry is a masterclass in this principle:
- Near corner: record demand, innovation in F&B and onboard experiences, expanding itineraries, and incremental environmental gains.
- Further corner: transformative shifts in propulsion technology, demographic change, regulatory demands, and destination sustainability.
Leaders who keep their eyes trained on both corners simultaneously will chart the most resilient course—those who focus only on today risk sailing straight into tomorrow’s disruption unprepared.
The Strategic Alchemy of Anticipation
The lesson for cruise—and for any industry navigating disruption—is clear:
- Growth without foresight is fragility.
- Innovation without context is noise.
- Sustainability without commitment is rhetoric.
But when leaders integrate these emerging themes into a disciplined way of thinking about the future, they create resilience and unlock opportunity.
As I often say: The pace and scale of disruption demand that we operate at the intersection of the present and the future. That intersection is where true leadership resides.
Onward!
Let’s connect to explore how my advisory services can help you uncover and capitalize on your brightest opportunities.