With record‑breaking megaships and dazzling private islands grabbing the spotlight, don’t overlook the more durable advantage emerging on smaller hulls
The spectacle is real—and it’s good for the category
The big‑ship story is undeniable. Royal Caribbean’s newest Icon‑class vessels (Icon of the Seas, and now Star of the Seas) command global attention and media oxygen. Carnival just opened Celebration Key in Grand Bahama, while Disney’s Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point joined the roster of purpose‑built beach experiences. Royal Caribbean’s Royal Beach Club at Paradise Island opens in 2025. MSC continues enhancing Ocean Cay ahead of its new Miami‑based tonnage. Together, these investments amplify cruising’s visibility and welcome new travelers into the funnel.
The equally exciting future: small and mid‑size ships move center stage
CLIA’s 2025 report shows the fleet structurally tilting small: more than 70% of ships sailing today—and scheduled through 2036—are small‑ to mid‑size by count. The orderbook underscores it: 56 ships are slated for delivery 2025–2036 (≈+168k lower berths), with 11 ships arriving in 2025 alone. Importantly, the “Class of 2025” spans both ends of the spectrum—from Royal Caribbean’s Star of the Seas to Oceania Allura (~1,200 guests) and Windstar Star Seeker (~224), illustrating how intimacy and access are scaling alongside spectacle.
Named proof points. Oceania Allura delivered in July 2025 (~1,200 guests), a culinary‑led, port‑intensive platform; Viking Vesta delivered in June 2025 (~998 guests), explicitly classed as a “small‑ship” design. And Viking’s Libra (late 2026) is slated to debut hydrogen capability for zero‑emissions operation at times—another reason newer, smaller ships will keep winning access and goodwill.
What’s powering the small‑ship swerve
- Demand mix is shifting upmarket. The luxury fleet has more than tripled since 2010; CLIA projects ~1.5 million luxury travelers by 2028, with luxury lower berths climbing to ~45,751.
- Experience‑first cruising is growing fastest. Expedition/exploration passengers rose 22% YoY (2023→2024), with capacity up ~150% (2019→2029)—evidence that access, science, and storytelling sell.
- Advisor channel confirms the tilt. North American travel advisors report the strongest booking growth in premium, luxury, and expedition versus mass‑market segments.
- Policy & port dynamics favor smaller ships. Venice’s ban on large ships endures; Amsterdam is cutting city‑center calls and relocating its terminal; Barcelona is reducing terminals and capping simultaneous cruise capacity—all moves that privilege smaller tonnage with lower local footprints and shore‑power readiness.
- Regulatory tailwind (EU OPS 2030). From 1 Jan 2030, passenger ships in covered EU TEN‑T ports must connect to on‑shore power while berthed (with limited exceptions), advantaging newer, power‑flexible ships.
Market signals in one view
- Fleet mix: >70% small‑ to mid‑size by ship count today and through 2036; 2028 projections keep the <3,000‑berth share dominant.
- Orderbook & investment: 56 ships / ~$56.7B (2025–2036), including a balanced pipeline that grows small‑ship availability in high‑yield geographies.
- Named small‑ship deliveries: Allura (Oceania, ~1,200), Vesta (Viking, ~998), Star Seeker (Windstar, ~224). Hydrogen‑enabled Libra (Viking, late 2026).
Risks & watch‑outs (that will shape winners)
- OPS readiness vs. 2030 deadline. The requirement to plug in at EU TEN‑T ports from 2030 is fixed; on‑the‑ground readiness is uneven, creating itinerary and capex friction for less flexible fleets.
- Destination constraints. Venice restrictions continue; Amsterdam will halve calls and relocate by 2035; Barcelona is demolishing terminals and cutting simultaneous capacity—great for air quality and mobility, tougher for mega‑ship access.
- Polar tightening. Svalbard introduced 200‑passenger limits in protected areas, restricted landings to 43 sites, and expanded wildlife standoff rules from Jan 1, 2025—expedition operators must adapt product and inventory.
- Technology vs. infrastructure. Hydrogen‑enabled designs (e.g., Viking Libra, 2026) are promising, but bunkering/OPS rollouts won’t be uniform; early movers need redundancy and route discipline.
- Reaching the right audience in a highly competitive market. The Bristol Affluent Traveler Marketing Database is a powerful, proprietary asset of Global Voyages Group, delivering direct, unrivaled access to one of the most valuable and travel-ready audiences in the United States. Reach out to me if you would like to explore putting Bristol behind your go-to-market activities.
Bottom line
The megaships and private destinations are expanding the top of the funnel—and that’s a win for cruising. But the quiet center of gravity is shifting toward small and mid‑size ships where access, intimacy, sustainability, and itinerary agility converge. That’s where the most resilient yields—and the fiercest loyalty—will be minted over the next decade.
Onward!